A Fox News poll released Thursday, Oct. 1, shows Democrat James Talarico with 51% support to Republican Ken Paxton's 49% among likely Texas voters in the race for the U.S. Senate seat now held by John Cornyn. The 2-point gap falls inside the poll's margin of sampling error, meaning the survey does not show either candidate with a clear lead.
How the poll was done
The survey was conducted Sept. 24-28 and jointly directed by two firms, Beacon Research (Democratic) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican). It reached 1,203 registered voters drawn at random from the statewide voter file, by live phone interviews on landlines and cellphones or through an online survey sent by text message.
Fox reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 3 points for the 881 respondents classified as likely voters.
This was Fox's first Texas poll of likely voters, so there is no earlier likely-voter result to compare. Among all registered voters, Talarico led by 7 points, compared with 3 points in a July Fox poll.
Other findings
Likely voters split on which party should control the Senate, 50% preferring Republicans and 49% Democrats. In the governor's race, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott led Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa 52% to 47%.
Cost of living ranked as the top issue, with seven in 10 calling it extremely important in deciding their Senate vote. Talarico led among voters most focused on cost of living, while Paxton led among those who ranked immigration highest.
Daron Shaw, the Republican half of the Fox polling team alongside Democrat Chris Anderson, said turnout among Republicans could decide the race. "Ironically, Paxton may owe his political life to Abbott, who is doing most of the get-out-the-vote work for the Republicans," Shaw said.
