A new Emerson College Polling survey, sponsored by Nexstar Media and released Thursday, Oct. 22, shows Texas' U.S. Senate contest too close to call: Democrat James Talarico has 48% and Republican Ken Paxton 46% among likely voters. That two-point gap sits inside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Libertarian Ted Brown drew 1%, and 5% of respondents were undecided. When those undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, the numbers moved to 49% for Talarico, 48% for Paxton and 3% for Brown.
Governor's race
In the same survey, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon at 1% and 4% undecided. With leaners counted, Abbott had 51%, Hinojosa 47% and Dixon 2%.
Movement since summer
Emerson's August Texas poll, taken Aug. 9-10, had Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%. Spencer Kimball, who leads Emerson's polling operation, said Talarico has picked up roughly a point a month since then, while Paxton has stayed in a 46% to 47% range.
Kimball also flagged the Libertarian vote as a factor to watch. "If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans," he said. "If it holds, Talarico benefits."
